Well yes, it is more Oscar talk I guess. I can't deny that. I enjoy talking about it. The politics of the event is such an interesting subject. Hollywood has created this socio-political, moralistic microcosm in which they exist. It fascinates me. Anyway, this is just another quick update on what we think is going on with the Oscar race as it begins to really narrow down and shape up.

Best Picture
So this one is really beginning to open up. With seemingly everything but Dreamgirls picking up end-of-year acclaim and hosts of strong chance nominations across precursors, the race has opened right up again to those sitting slightly behind that film in the worthiness stakes. The Departed and Letters From Iwo Jima particularly have picked up speed but for me, the one to watch is Babel. Picking up a bucket of nominations at the Globes and SAGs, its looking seriously like this year's Crash except, you know, actually a good film. Iwo Jima isn't a lock yet so for me, with The Queen not quite a lock but picking up steam and Little Miss Sunshine, United 93 and the brilliant Pan's Labyrinth all starting to make a charge, Clint's Picture nomination is looking decidedly shaky. Right now, my guessing is split between Babel and The Departed as I don't think Dreamgirls has the steam to make it.

Best Director
Another really shaky one here. Clint looked frontrunner to pick up his third Oscar this year but has dropped fast. Great reviews and a few end-of-year wins for Letters For Iwo Jima keeps it in the race but Flags of Our Fathers is gone. Scorsese is still my frontrunner here as they so deeply owe him it and they know it. He's been snubbed too many times to not take it. Stephen Frears may well be a lock now but it really is open around those other couple of spots. Bill Condon may well pick one up for past glories (Gods and Monsters is really fantastic) and you would think Alejandro Innaritu has one in the bag for Babel. But all three of those guys (Clint, Alejandro and Bill) could easily fall as could Frears. Unlikely though I have to say and while I'm pulling for Guillermo Del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth, it just isn't looking like it will happen. I'd say Scorsese to win with Innaritu, Frears, Condon and Paul Greengrass getting the nods. I'm going for a full Eastwood snub.

Best Actor
Another chopping and changing category with support for the two previous frontrunners, Forest Whitaker and Peter O'Toole, fading rapidly. Whitaker may still be favourite for his astonishing performance as Idi Amin but Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed is gaining fast. There is also growing support for Ryan Gosling's crack-addict teacher in Half Nelson and very strong support for Will Smith in Pursuit of Happyness. Smith should've won for Ali so there is a degree of owing him while DiCaprio has really shown his quality over the past couple of years and with The Departed and Blood Diamond this year, his challenge is strong. Realistically only two people could steal in to those places. Ken Watanabe needs extra support to get in there but look out for Aaron Eckhart's career making performance in Thank You For Smoking. A win at the Globes for him and that fifth spot could be his. Still though, Whitaker will win.

Best Actress
Helen Mirren pretty much has this locked up now and if she wins the BAFTA, you may as well just tell the others to go home. Judi Dench is probably a lock now after good reviews and key nominations for Notes on a Scandal while I would guess Meryl Streep's position as Greatest Actress Ever guarantees her a two thousandth nomination. Penelope Cruz and Kate Winslet are likely both locks too with Winslet perhaps even a distant dark horse in the race after consistently proving her brilliance across the past 10 or so years. Maggie Gyllenhaal though in Sherrybaby should not be counted out after scoring major points with critics. Beyonce though just ain't gonna make it. Mirren still to win.

Supporting Categories
Dreamgirls seems to have these two in their pocket right now with huge buzz for Eddie Murphy still building and Jennifer Hudson's consistent favourite position unwavering. Brad Pitt could still steal Murphy's crown very easily though as of course, could Jack Nicholson. Those three are locks and both Ben Affleck and now, after Golden Globe acclaim, Mark Wahlberg could steal in. Don't be too surprised however to see Alan Arkin steal that nod from him with Little Miss Sunshine flying onwards and upwards with every passing awards show. For me though, I'm still thinking Pitt will take it.
Hudson is surely going to win the Supporting Actress gong with only Cate Blanchett a serious contender to steal that. Adriana Bazzara and Rinko Kikuchi should both be locks for nominations in Babel while its looking increasingly likely that Abigail Breslin will leapfrog Dakota Fanning as premier child star by snagging a nod. Catherine O’Hara is a very vague potential to steal away the Little Miss Sunshine star’s limelight but its unlikely. Hudson though will still surely win.

Screenplays
Original Screenplays looked wrapped up for Babel but Little Miss Sunshine’s charge has now hit full pelt and they are definite frontrunners now. Pan’s Labyrinth’s word-of-mouth adoration should see it steal in here while Stranger Than Fiction will almost certainly get this as reward for no many near misses. Along with those, I think The Queen will steal in and grab the fifth spot with the great reviews and power of Mirren propelling it. Its still fairly open though with Letters From Iwo Jima, Half Nelson and United 93 still in the running.
Adapted is almost definitely The Departed’s now with its position as Awards frontrunner sealed. However don’t count out Children of Men’s late charge and if any actual gold is going the way of Little Children, this is where it will happen. Those three are locks for me along with a perfunctory one for Dreamgirls due to basic award potential while the fifth spot will likely fall to Thank You For Smoking for making a pretty weak book into a good film. Notes on a Scandal is a possibility but rule out fairytale hopes of Borat.

Others
A very interesting category this year will be documentary which is immensely strong again. Inconvenient Truth is absolute frontrunner but look out for two incendiary docs Deliver Us From Evil and Jesus Camp who could both gain support and steal in.
Animated movie will go to Cars but it should go to the smarter and infinitely more lovable Monster House for being, you know, a good film.
Foreign as usual is very strong with Volver leading the way but support continues to grow for the wonderful Pan’s Labyrinth and also for Zhang Yimou’s Curse of the Golden Flower. Keep an eye though on apparently ace German movie The Lives of Others.

So there it is again. That was a long one, huh?