Oscars Again!!

So, you've probably guessed we enjoy Oscar buzz round here and like to make a few predictions as to who will win and who should win. This time, its going to be a little more in depth in terms of its writing and should give a good overview of anyone with any sort of chance.

Best Picture

This race is really beginning to hot up now with clear contenders emerging. Flags of our Fathers has fallen from the race after being usurped by the superior Letters From Iwo Jima in Clint's Oscar portfolio. The Departed and Babel are strong at the moment after hitting top marks in year-end lists and smaller critic awards. The latter in particular has definitely locked in its nomination after looking a little shaky. Honestly, four places seem a lock with those three plus Dreamgirls making up the definites. The coveted fifth spot could go a few places but for me, only two contenders really remain. With Apocalytpo's Gibson-shaped stone round its neck, its between Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen for the spot and I would guess, with snubs for both director and supporting cast at precursors for The Queen, that Little Miss Sunshine will steal in. Major snub? Pan's Labyrinth. Easily the year's finest film. As far as a winner goes though, my money remains with The Departed.



Best Director

Another tough race but I still think Scorsese leads. Clint is guaranteed a nomination at least for Letters From Iwo Jima while Alejandro Innaritu will definitely now be nominated for Babel after its excellent critical showing. Bill Condon should still get a nod for Dreamgirls but its looking tougher than first thought. It seems the cast is overshadowing the director and he needs a couple of precursor wins to get back in the race. The fifth spot could again go a couple of places but I'd put my money on Paul Greengrass after United 93's excellent critic list showing. Don't count out Stephen Frears for The Queen or Guillermo Del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth though. Scorsese to win.



Best Actor

Still a lock for me for Forest Whitaker but less sure than before. Both Peter O'Toole (Venus) and Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness) have been picking up plaudits and Whitaker will need to take the Golden Globe to lock this one down. Leonardo DiCaprio remains a force with support growing for The Blood Diamond as well as The Departed and a possible double nomination a genuine possibility. Ryan Gosling needs a major precursor nomination to keep up his challenge in Half Nelson so I would say that Aaron Eckhart may well now steal that final spot for Thank You For Smoking. Winner though? Still Whitaker.



Best Actress

The only one I would put real money on. Helen Mirren is nearly a lock to win this now but I think the rest of the race is relatively open. Kate Winslet (Little Children) should get a nod along with Meryl Streep in Devil Wears Prada. I then think it will be Penelope Cruz for Volver after great praise throughout the year and then between three very different contenders for the final spot. Beyonce Knowles in Dreamgirls, Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal and, a long shot but a definite maybe, Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby. It could happen for her but I'm not sealing my bet in anywhere now. Mirren will win though.



Best Supporting Actor

Major changes in this category with a new frontrunner emerging in Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls. Jack Nicholson's challenge is weakening for The Departed with praise being heaped on Mark Wahlberg for the same movie. Both should get nominated. Brad Pitt is a lock for Babel and a genuine contender if the movie gets some solid performances in precursors. The other spot could again go a few places but I'd say Ben Affleck is a good bet for Hollywoodland. That movies weak reviews have harmed him but the win in Venice should help his charge. Otherwise, with Adam Beach's chances in Flags of our Fathers withered to nothing, either Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine or Michael Sheen for The Queen. Money on Affleck though. Winner, either Murphy or Pitt but my money goes on Pitt.



Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls is surely a near lock now but dark horses keep emerging in this one. Rinko Kikuchi in Babel is a definite now along with Cate Blanchett for either The Good German or Notes on a Scandal, the latter more likely. I'd say the other two places will go to Maggie Gyllenhaal if she doesn't get the Sherrybaby nod, Brittany Murphy in The Dead Girl, Adriana Bazarra in Babel or, hopefully Catherine O'Hara in For Your Consideration. O'Hara should've got a nomination for A Mighty Wind and the Academy may like to seem a little self-deprecating by acknowledging a movie that takes a swipe at them. However, my money is on Gyllenhaal and outsider Murphy for finally showing her talent. Winner will still be Hudson though.



Screenplays

Probably the most interestingly open categories. ORIGINAL will likely fall to Babel or Little Miss Sunshine with only The Queen a real contender otherwise. Pan's Labyrinth could get a nod but they very rarely nominate two foreign language pictures in these categories and Letters from Iwo Jima will likely snag that spot. ADAPTED is a total lock for with The Departed with Notes on a Scandal and The Painted Veil contending. Look out for Children of Men here though, after a strong critical year it could snag a nomination here. So... Original to Babel and Adapted to The Departed.


HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!

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